Peterson Institute bookstore
The Peterson Institute for International Economics is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan
research institution devoted to the study of international economic policy. More › ›
RSS News Feed Search

Korea after Kim Jong-il
Book Data
January 2004
ISBN paper 0-88132-373-X
100 pp.

News Release

Share

|

Korea after Kim Jong-il


Policy Analyses in International Economics 71

by Marcus Noland

". . .a bold and insightful attempt to chart the future."

Pacific Affairs

Description

Today's North Korean regime embodies elements of both communism and Confucian dynasty, is sovereign with respect to only part of the divided Korean nation, is vulnerable to pressure from external powers, and confronts incipient internal demands for change, yielding an unusually broad set of possible transition paths and successor regimes. Such paths range from maintenance of the status quo to evolution, probably toward a more conventional form of military authoritarianism, to revolutionary upheaval, the latter in all likelihood implying the North's collapse and its absorption into the rival Southern state. This policy analysis quantitatively analyzes the probability of regime change and examines the character of possible successor regimes and the implications of these profoundly different trajectories for South Korea.

UK and European Residents: Purchase this book through Eurospan for faster service.

Contents

Search the full text
of this book:



Preface

Acknowledgments

1. Political Change in North Korea 115.8KB

2. Modeling Regime Change 146.0KB

3. Transition Paths 139.4KB

4. Implications for South Korea 99.5KB

Data Appendix 56.3KB

References

Index


Other books of interest:
Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas
Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas
by Marcus Noland
Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula
Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula
edited by Marcus Noland
Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform
Famine in North Korea: Markets, Aid, and Reform
by Marcus Noland and
Stephan Haggard
Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea
Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea
by Stephan Haggard and
Marcus Noland