Two crises, 9/11 and Enron, have unfolded since 2001 that highlight crucial issues around national security and trust in the marketplace. Both are examples of vulnerability in our globalized world. Western societies now look to the “State”, more than in recent decades, to lead the restoration
of physical security and market integrity. This brings into sharper focus the power of the State to regulate and to coerce, in a role involving both direct intervention to fight terrorism and police the market, and a more general emphasis on transparency disclosure and good governance. The new
Global Scenarios explore how the forces of market incentives, community, and coercion and regulation by the State interact and impact policy and business decision-making. Three possible scenarios are identified and examined in the Shell Global Scenarios to 2025. All three scenarios see
continuing globalization in the simplistic sense of the word: continuing economic growth and an increasing movement of people and ideas across the globe. Energy companies, more than most businesses, need to take a long-term view. Shell has been producing Global Scenarios for more than thirty years and now for the first time they are available to the public. These scenarios are different from forecasts in that they provide a tool that helps to explore the many complex business environments in which we work and the factors that drive changes and developments in those environments.
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