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How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk, such as their production capacity, than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation models, Cline boldly examines 2071–99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact into the next decade. This detailed study
- outlines existing studies on climate change; Cline finds the Stern Report for the UK government's estimates most reliable;
- estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and
- concludes with policy recommendations.
Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall an average of 16 percent, and if global warming progresses at its current rate, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.
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Chapters are provided for preview only.
1. Introduction and Overview [pdf]
2. Brief Survey of Existing Literature
3. Key Issues: Carbon Fertilization, Irrigation, and Trade [pdf]
4. Country-Level Climate Projections
5. Country-Level Agricultural Impact Estimates
6. Dynamic Considerations
7. Conclusion [pdf]