While global trade negotiations remain stalled, two tracks of trade negotiations in the Asia-Pacific—the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and a parallel Asian track—could generate momentum for renewed liberalization and provide pathways to region-wide free trade. This book investigates what these trade negotiations could mean to the world economy. Petri, Plummer, and Zhai estimate that world income would rise by $295 billion per year on the TPP track, by $766 billion if both tracks are successful, and by $1.9 trillion if the tracks ultimately combine to yield region-wide free trade. They find that the tracks are competitive initially but their strategic implications appear to be constructive: the agreements would generate incentives for enlargement and mutual progress and, over time, for region-wide consolidation. The authors conclude that the crucial importance of Asia-Pacific integration argues for an early conclusion of the TPP negotiations, but without jeopardizing the prospects for region-wide or even global agreements based on it in the future.
>> View updated research reports, results, and data on the authors' website, Asia-Pacific Trade.
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1. Introduction [pdf]
2. How and Why the Trans-Pacific Partnership Became a Priority
3. Analytical Approach
4. Economic Implications of the Trans-Pacific and Asian Tracks [pdf]
5. Dynamics of the Trans-Pacific and Asian Tracks
6. National Economic Interests [pdf]
Appendix A The Computable General Equilibrium Model
Appendix B Baseline Projections
Appendix C Scoring Provisions in Asia-Pacific Agreements
Appendix D Quantifying the Trade Effects of Agreements
Appendix E Quantifying the Investment Effects of Agreements
Appendix F Model Sensitivity