On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the postwar era confronts a famine-ridden—and possibly nuclear-armed—totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. The future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and "muddling through" in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.
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1. Introduction 146.8KB
2. The South Korean Economy Until 1997 397.3KB
3. The North Korean Economy 546.6KB
4. The Nuclear Confrontation 225.0KB
5. The Slow-Motion Famine in the North 254.7KB
6. The Financial Crisis in the South 418.9KB
7. The Prospect of Successful Reform in the North 296.9KB
8. The Implications of North Korean Collapse 289.4KB
9. Can the North Muddle Through? 194.5KB
10. Conclusions 221.4KB